Read e-book online Semiparametric Modeling of Implied Volatility (Springer PDF

By Matthias R. Fengler

ISBN-10: 3540262342

ISBN-13: 9783540262343

ISBN-10: 3540305912

ISBN-13: 9783540305910

The implied volatility floor is a key monetary variable for the pricing and the danger administration of simple vanilla and unique thoughts portfolios alike. hence, statistical types of the implied volatility floor are of fast significance in perform: they could look as estimates of the present floor or as totally certain dynamic versions describing its propagation via area and time.

This book fills a spot in the financial literature by way of bringing jointly either fresh advances within the thought of implied volatility and sophisticated semiparametric estimation thoughts and size aid equipment for sensible surfaces: the 1st a part of the booklet is dedicated to smile-consistent pricing appoaches. the speculation of implied and native volatility is gifted concisely, and very important smile-consistent modeling ways akin to implied bushes, blend diffusion, or stochastic implied volatility types are mentioned intimately. the second one a part of the ebook familiarizes the reader with estimation strategies which are ordinary applicants to fulfill the demanding situations in implied volatility modeling, corresponding to the wealthy useful constitution of saw implied volatility surfaces and the need for measurement aid: non- and semiparametric smoothing techniques.

The publication introduces Nadaraya-Watson, neighborhood polynomial and least squares kernel smoothing, and size relief tools akin to universal precept parts, useful precept parts versions and dynamic semiparametric issue versions. all through, so much equipment are illustrated with empirical investigations, simulations and pictures.

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Additional info for Semiparametric Modeling of Implied Volatility (Springer Finance)

Sample text

E. a self-financing strategy with minimum initial costs is seeked such that any future obligation from selling the contingent claim is covered, while in quantile-hedging one tries to cover this obligation only with a sufficiently high probability. e. which allow for the additional transfer of wealth to the hedge portfolio. This is called risk-minimizing hedging orginated by F¨ ollmer and Sondermann (1986). See F¨ollmer and Schweizer (1990), Karatzas (1997) and F¨ ollmer and Schied (2002) for a detailed mathematical treatment of these hedging approaches.

This is a natural approach, especially when the exotic option is to be hedged with plain vanilla options. It will be the topic in Chap. 3. 10 IV as Predictor of Realized Volatility Forecasting volatility is a major topic in economics and finance: whether in monetary policy making, for investment decisions, in security valuation, or in risk management, a precise assessment of the market’s expectations on volatility is inevitable. Consequently, forecasting volatility has received high attention in the past twenty years.

43 of studies. For an excellent survey on this enormous body of literature we refer to Poon and Granger (2003). In an efficient market, options instantaneously adjust to new information. Thus, IV predictions do not depend on the historical price or volatility series in an adaptive sense, as is typically the case in time series based methods. While this may be seen as a general advantage of IV based methods, there are two methodological caveats: first, the test on the forecasting ability of IV is always a joint test of option market efficiency and the option pricing model, which can hardly be disentangled.

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Semiparametric Modeling of Implied Volatility (Springer Finance) by Matthias R. Fengler

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